The days are fast approaching for the 2023 general elections. In Kaduna State, the man to beat for the race to the Government House is definitely Senator Sani Uba. KATDAPBA Y GOBUM examines that possibility and why he is only waiting to be sworn in come May 29, 2023.
It was Abraham Lincoln, who once said: ‘Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters’.
The Kaduna State governorship election, was supposed to be a straight forward contest, between Senator Uba Sani, of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Isa Ashiru Kudan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but clearly, it’s turning out to be a non contest, as Uba Sani, has pulled far ahead of the pack.
For all intent and purposes, Kaduna State election was expected to be a ‘battle’, which the PDP would have given the APC, a good fight,but unfortunately,they failed right from the governorship primaries,when they zeroed in on Isa Ashiru Kudan.
Though “popular” within the PDP, he is a non-starter,with critical key stakeholders in the famed home of the Kaduna Mafia.
Despite being a sitting Senator, Uba has mounted a vigorous campaign that Isa Ashiru Kudan, hasn’t been able to match. In the last few weeks, virtually every key voting bloc, has endorsed the governorship aspiration of Senator Sani. And from every indication, Uba Sani, will succeed the highly cerebral Governor Nasir el-Rufai.
Since 2015, when Isa Ashiru Kudan, first contested the governorship of Kaduna State against Nasir el-Rufai, several political developments have taken place between 2014 and 2022. One, he had moved from the APC to the PDP, in order to actualize his dream of ruling Kaduna State in 2019, but was once again defeated,like he was in 2014 by El-Rufai.
Though 2023,is clearly Isa Ashiru Kudan’s last chance, he hasn’t been able to put up any stiff challenge, due to funding challenges. The 2014, 2019 and 2022 primaries and elections have financially drained him.
His last job was in 2015, as a member of the House of Representatives, where he represented Kudan/Makarfi federal constituency.
Without any doubt, election is a money guzzler.
Atiku Abubakar,who would have bailed out Isa Ashiru Kudan, is facing his last attempt at becoming the president of Nigeria, squarely, that the likes of Isa Ashiru Kudan have been left out in the cold.
Isa Ashiru Kudan’s burning ambition to govern Kaduna State has unfortunately fizzled out.
With or without money, Isa Ashiru Kudan can’t match the political power of Senator Uba Sani, the All Progressives Party governorship flag bearer.
Political analysts,who understand the politics of Kaduna State, have long conceded that the El-Rufai political mechinery can’t be challenged. “The APC determination to win the election,is an open secret. It won’t allow Isa Ashiru Kudan to undo the 8 years of El-Rufai”. Said Mansa Musa.
What is interesting many PDP members,is that the defeat of Isa Ashiru Kudan,will lead to Isa Ashiru Kudan’s retirement from politics, like Uba retired Senator Shehu Sani in 2019. Uba Sani, seems to have a magic wand of inflicting knock out punches on his opponents.
It is on record that the All Progressives Congress has an impenetrable base in the state. After the defeat in the Sabon Gari House of Assembly bye election in the hands of the Peoples Democratic Party, it returned to the drawing board and sorted itself.
It also organised a crisis free primaries, which has helped it consolidate going into the election.
In fact, before now, the foot of the APC in the Southern part of Kaduna was in clay, but the APC has made foray into the zone and was able to capture 5 local government councils in the 2021 local government elections. The PDP, on the other hand hasn’t been able to penetrate the APC strongholds.
To defeat the APC is going to be difficult for the PDP,because the party as at today, lacks a base.And the Labour Party has further worsened the situation for Isa Ashiru Kudan.
The Labour Party (LP) has without doubt compounded whatever chance the PDP thought it had, by settling for Jonathan Asake, the former president of the Southern Kaduna Peoples Union (SOKAPU), as its governorship candidate.
The LP gubernatorial candidate in Kaduna State, Hon Jonathan Asake will certainly attempt to use the new found euphoria of the party to gain relevance, but will be a threat not to the ruling APC in the state.
As of today, the PDP has no path to victory. The party is deeply fragmented.
The failure of the PDP to mount any effective challenge, makes the APC the party to beat, coupled with the achievements of Governor Nasir el-Rufai in the last eight years. These achievements are a stumbling block, standing in the way of the other parties,especially the PDP, which has nothing to show for its 16 years in power.
Governor el-Rufai has raised the bar of governance in Kaduna State. The challenge before Kaduna State citizens is for the next administration to continue on the solid foundation laid by the el-Rufai government, with some adjustments, where necessary, and to consolidate on them.
Senator Uba Sani, who has proven himself an audacious political chess master will certainly maintain the same tempo,going by his accomplishments at the senate.
The political trajectory of the state is a study in itself. It is on record that despite Uba Sani being of Kaduna Central Senatorial District,he attracted an ICT Centre to the College of Education Kafanchan. He has equally thrown his support behind the actualization of the federal university, Manchok, Southern Kaduna. Given thses facts, it will be foolhardy for the people of the zone to reject him. They also want to be politically irrelevant in 2023.
The question many Southern Kaduna people have started to ask; which has led to strategic realignment, is the acknowledgement that Senator Uba Sani,will better serve their interest more than Isa Ashiru Kudan. This position is gaining currency by day amongst politicians, and professionals.
The 2023 governorship election has been rightly framed as a stark choice, between continued physical and human capital development, which the All Progressives Congress (APC) represents or a return to the ugly era of stomach infrastructure, a term popularized by the former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose’.
Clearly, that can never be the dream of the people; and even if they had wanted a change, certainly Isa Ashiru Kudan, doesn’t fit the bill.
Between 2018 and 2021, the PDP twice suffered defeats in the local government elections; but by far, Isa Ashiru Kudan’s defeat in 2019 is an effective pronouncement of the capacity of the APC to repeat the feat in 2023.
The other reason, why the Isa Ashiru Kudan candidacy is dicy, is the allegation regarding his secondary school certificate and his last place of work.
The people are well informed about the negative campaigns by the opposition PDP during the last general election against the APC. Fortunately the people of Kaduna State are a lot wiser and will not buy into the same negative campaign that the PDP has consistently mounted on the various reforms (education, public service, traditional institution, local government, etc), or the urban renewal projects, which though led to the demolition of some structures, but for which the owners were adequately compensated’.
There is no society that does not go through the pains of development for its tomorrow to be better. If the people think otherwise, then they will have to live with the consequences of ‘the choice they make.
Because Senator Uba Sani, has delivered on his mandate in the last four years in the Senate, the consensus is that he will over deliver if elected Kaduna State Governor in 2023.
